Mavuto amphamvu omwe adayambitsidwa ndi nkhondo ku Ukraine atha kukhala owononga kwambiri zachuma ku Russia ndi European Union kotero kuti pamapeto pake atha kuchepetsa mphamvu zazikulu padziko lonse lapansi.Tanthauzo la kusinthaku—limene silikumvetsetsedwabe—ndilo lakuti tikuwoneka kuti tikuyenda mofulumira ku dziko la bipolar lolamuliridwa ndi maulamuliro amphamvu aŵiri: China ndi United States.

Ngati tilingalira za nthawi ya Cold War ya ulamuliro wa unipolar US kuyambira 1991 mpaka mavuto azachuma a 2008, ndiye kuti tikhoza kuchitira nthawi kuyambira 2008 mpaka February chaka chino, pamene Russia inagonjetsa Ukraine, monga nthawi ya quasi-multipolarity. .China ikukwera mwachangu, koma kukula kwachuma kwa EU - komanso kukula kwa 2008 - zidapangitsa kuti ikhale yovomerezeka ngati imodzi mwamaulamuliro akulu padziko lapansi.Kuyambiranso kwachuma ku Russia kuyambira 2003 ndikupitilizabe mphamvu zankhondo kumayikanso pamapu.Atsogoleri ochokera ku New Delhi kupita ku Berlin kupita ku Moscow adayamika ma multipolarity ngati njira yatsopano yapadziko lonse lapansi.

Kukangana kwamphamvu kwapakati pa Russia ndi Kumadzulo kumatanthauza kuti nthawi ya multipolarity yatha.Ngakhale zida za nyukiliya za ku Russia sizidzatha, dzikolo likhala logwirizana ndi gawo lotsogozedwa ndi China.Kuchepa pang'ono kwavuto lamagetsi pachuma cha US, pakadali pano, kudzakhala chitonthozo chozizira ku Washington geopolitically: Kufota kwa Europe pamapeto pake kudzachepetsa mphamvu ya United States, yomwe yakhala ikuwerengera dziko lonselo ngati bwenzi.

Mphamvu zotsika mtengo ndiye maziko achuma chamakono.Ngakhale gawo lamphamvu, munthawi yake, limakhala ndi gawo laling'ono chabe la GDP yonse yachuma chapamwamba kwambiri, limakhudza kwambiri kukwera kwamitengo ndi ndalama zogulira m'magawo onse chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwake pakugwiritsa ntchito.

Mitengo yamagetsi ya ku Ulaya ndi gasi yachilengedwe tsopano ili pafupi ndi nthawi 10 za mbiri yakale m'zaka khumi zomwe zikufika ku 2020. Kukwera kwakukulu kwa chaka chino kuli pafupifupi chifukwa cha nkhondo ya Russia ku Ukraine, ngakhale kuti inakula kwambiri chifukwa cha kutentha kwakukulu ndi chilala m'chilimwe chino.Mpaka chaka cha 2021, ku Ulaya (kuphatikizapo United Kingdom) kunkadalira ku Russia kuti atenge 40 peresenti ya gasi wachilengedwe komanso gawo lalikulu la mafuta ndi malasha.Miyezi ingapo isanawukire ku Ukraine, dziko la Russia lidayamba kugwiritsa ntchito misika yamagetsi ndikukweza mitengo yamafuta achilengedwe, malinga ndi International Energy Agency.

Mphamvu zaku Europe zimawononga pafupifupi 2 peresenti ya GDP munthawi yake, koma zakwera mpaka 12 peresenti chifukwa chakukwera kwamitengo.Kukwera mtengo kwamtunduwu kukutanthauza kuti mafakitale ambiri ku Europe akuchepetsa ntchito kapena kutseka kwathunthu.Opanga aluminiyamu, opanga feteleza, osungunula zitsulo, ndi opangira magalasi ndiwo ali pachiwopsezo chachikulu cha kukwera mtengo kwa gasi.Izi zikutanthauza kuti Europe ikhoza kuyembekezera kutsika kwachuma m'zaka zikubwerazi, ngakhale kuyerekeza kwachuma komwe kumasiyanasiyana kusiyanasiyana.

Kunena zomveka: Europe sadzakhala osauka.Komanso anthu ake sadzazizira m'nyengo yozizirayi.Zizindikiro zoyambirira zikusonyeza kuti kontinentiyo ikugwira ntchito yabwino yochepetsera gasi wachilengedwe ndikudzaza matanki osungiramo m'nyengo yozizira.Germany ndi France zakhazikitsa zida zazikuluzikulu - pamtengo wokwera - kuti achepetse kusokoneza kwa ogwiritsa ntchito magetsi.

M'malo mwake, chiwopsezo chenicheni chomwe kontinenti ikukumana nacho ndikutayika kwa mpikisano pazachuma chifukwa chakuchepa kwachuma.Mpweya wotsika mtengo unadalira chikhulupiriro chonyenga cha kudalirika kwa Russia, ndipo zapita kwamuyaya.Makampaniwa adzasintha pang'onopang'ono, koma kusinthako kudzatenga nthawi-ndipo kungayambitse kusokonezeka kwachuma.

Mavuto azachuma awa alibe chochita ndi kusintha kwamphamvu kwamphamvu kapena kuyankha mwadzidzidzi kwa EU pakusokonekera kwa msika komwe kumachitika chifukwa cha nkhondo ku Ukraine.M'malo mwake, atha kutsatiridwa ku zisankho zam'mbuyomu za ku Europe zokulitsa chizoloŵezi chamafuta aku Russia, makamaka gasi.Ngakhale zongowonjezwdwanso ngati solar ndi mphepo zimatha kulowa m'malo mwamafuta oyambira pansi popereka magetsi otsika mtengo, sizingalowe m'malo mwa gasi wachilengedwe kuti agwiritse ntchito m'mafakitale-makamaka popeza imported liquified natural gas (LNG), yomwe nthawi zambiri imapangidwa m'malo mwa gasi wamapaipi, ndiyokwera mtengo kwambiri.Choncho, zoyesayesa za andale ena zonena kuti kusintha kwa mphamvu za magetsi kumayambitsa mavuto a zachuma zomwe zikuchitikazi sikulakwa.

Nkhani zoyipa ku Europe zikuphatikiza zomwe zidachitika kale: Kuyambira 2008, gawo la EU pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi latsika.Ngakhale kuti dziko la United States linachira msanga kuchoka ku Kugwa Kwachuma Kwambiri, chuma cha ku Ulaya chinavutika kwambiri.Ena a iwo adatenga zaka kuti akulenso mpaka pamavuto asanachitike.Pakadali pano, chuma ku Asia chinali kupitilizabe kukula pamitengo yotsogola, motsogozedwa ndi chuma chambiri cha China.

Pakati pa 2009 ndi 2020, kuchuluka kwa GDP kwa EU pachaka kunali pafupifupi 0.48 peresenti, malinga ndi World Bank.Kukula kwa US pa nthawi yomweyi kunali pafupifupi katatu, pafupifupi 1.38 peresenti pachaka.Ndipo China idakula mwachangu ndi 7.36 peresenti pachaka munthawi yomweyi.Zotsatira zake ndizakuti, ngakhale gawo la EU pa GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi linali lalikulu kuposa la United States ndi China mu 2009, tsopano ndilotsika kwambiri mwa atatuwo.

Posachedwapa mu 2005, EU inali ndi 20 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse.Ingowerengera theka la kuchuluka komweko koyambirira kwa 2030s ngati chuma cha EU chidzachepa ndi 3 peresenti mu 2023 ndi 2024 ndikuyambiranso kukula kwa mliri usanachitike wa 0.5 peresenti pachaka pomwe dziko lonse lapansi likukula pa 3 peresenti ( chiwerengero cha pre-miliri padziko lonse lapansi).Ngati nyengo yachisanu ya 2023 ikuzizira ndipo kugwa kwachuma kukubwera kudzakhala koopsa, gawo la Europe pa GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi litha kutsika mwachangu kwambiri.

Choipa kwambiri n’chakuti, Ulaya akutsalira kwambiri maulamuliro ena pankhani ya mphamvu zankhondo.Mayiko a ku Ulaya akhala akunyalanyaza kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zankhondo kwazaka zambiri ndipo sangathe kubwezera mosavuta chifukwa chosowa ndalama.Kuwononga ndalama zilizonse zankhondo zaku Europe pano - kubwezera nthawi yotayika - kumabwera pamtengo wamtengo wapatali kumadera ena azachuma, zomwe zitha kupangitsa kukula komanso kukakamiza zisankho zopweteka zokhudzana ndi kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe anthu amawononga.

Mkhalidwe waku Russia ndi wovuta kwambiri kuposa wa EU.Zowona, dzikolo likupezabe ndalama zambiri kuchokera ku malonda omwe amagulitsa mafuta ndi gasi, makamaka ku Asia.Komabe, m’kupita kwa nthaŵi, gawo la mafuta ndi gasi la ku Russia likhoza kuchepa—ngakhale nkhondo ya ku Ukraine itatha.Chuma chonse cha Russia chikuvutikira, ndipo zilango zaku Western zidzalanda gawo lamphamvu mdzikolo luso laukadaulo komanso ndalama zogulira zomwe zimafunikira kwambiri.

Tsopano popeza Europe yataya chikhulupiriro ku Russia ngati wopereka mphamvu, njira yokhayo ya Russia ndiyo kugulitsa mphamvu zake kwa makasitomala aku Asia.Mwamwayi, Asia ili ndi chuma chochuluka chomwe chikukula.Zomvetsa chisoni ku Russia, pafupifupi maukonde ake onse a mapaipi ndi zida zamagetsi zamangidwa kuti zitumizidwe ku Europe ndipo sizingayendere kummawa mosavuta.Zitenga zaka ndi mabiliyoni a madola kuti Moscow ikonzenso zotumiza kunja kwa mphamvu, ndipo zikuwoneka kuti ingoyang'ana pazachuma ku Beijing.Kudalira gawo lamagetsi ku China kuyenera kupitilira ku geopolitics, mgwirizano pomwe Russia ikuwoneka kuti ikuchita gawo locheperako.Kuvomereza kwa Purezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin pa Seputembara 15 kuti mnzake waku China, Xi Jinping, anali ndi "mafunso ndi nkhawa" pankhondo yaku Ukraine akuwonetsa kusiyana kwamphamvu komwe kulipo kale pakati pa Beijing ndi Moscow.

 

Kupereŵera kwa chakudya—ndi kukwera mtengo kwa zinthu zomwe zilipo—kungayambitse vuto lalikulu m’madera ameneŵa kuposa mphamvu ya magetsi.Nkhondo ku Ukraine yasokoneza zokolola ndi mayendedwe a tirigu wochuluka ndi mbewu zina.Akuluakulu ogulitsa zakudya monga Egypt ali ndi chifukwa chodera nkhawa za zipolowe zandale zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatsagana ndi kukwera mtengo kwazakudya.

Mfundo yofunika kwambiri pa ndale zapadziko lonse ndi yakuti tikupita ku dziko limene China ndi United States ndi maulamuliro awiri akuluakulu padziko lonse.Kupatula ku Europe ku zochitika zapadziko lonse lapansi kudzasokoneza zofuna za US.Europe ndi - makamaka - demokalase, capitalist, ndipo odzipereka ku ufulu wa anthu ndi malamulo ozikidwa pa mayiko.EU yatsogoleranso dziko lonse lapansi pamalamulo okhudzana ndi chitetezo, chinsinsi cha data, ndi chilengedwe, kukakamiza mabungwe amitundu yosiyanasiyana kuti akweze machitidwe awo padziko lonse lapansi kuti agwirizane ndi miyezo yaku Europe.Kupatula dziko la Russia kungawoneke ngati kothandiza kwambiri pazokonda za US, koma kuli pachiwopsezo choti Putin (kapena wolowa m'malo mwake) angachitepo kanthu ndikukula kwa dzikolo ndi kutchuka kwake pochita zinthu zowononga, mwinanso zoopsa.

Pamene Europe ikuvutika kuti ikhazikitse chuma chake, dziko la United States liyenera kuthandizira ngati kuli kotheka, kuphatikizapo kutumiza kunja zina za mphamvu zake, monga LNG.Izi zitha kukhala zosavuta kunena kuposa kuchita: Achimereka sanadzukebe ndikukwera kwawo kwamitengo yamagetsi.Mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe ku United States yakwera katatu chaka chino ndipo ikhoza kukwera pamene makampani aku US akuyesera kupeza misika yopindulitsa ya LNG ku Europe ndi Asia.Ngati mitengo yamagetsi ikwera kwambiri, andale aku US adzakakamizidwa kuti aletse kutumizidwa kunja kuti asunge mphamvu ku North America.

Poyang'anizana ndi Europe yofooka, opanga mfundo aku US adzafuna kukulitsa magulu ogwirizana azachuma omwe ali ndi malingaliro ofanana m'mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi monga United Nations, World Trade Organisation, ndi International Monetary Fund.Izi zitha kutanthauza kuyanjana kwakukulu kwa maulamuliro apakati monga India, Brazil, ndi Indonesia.Komabe, Europe ikuwoneka kuti ndi yovuta kusintha.United States yapindula kwa zaka zambiri kuchokera pazokonda zachuma komanso kumvetsetsana ndi kontinenti.Momwe kuchuluka kwachuma ku Europe tsopano kukucheperachepera, United States ikumana ndi kutsutsa kolimba masomphenya ake a dongosolo lapadziko lonse lapansi lokomera demokalase.