Vuto la mphamvu lomwe linayambitsidwa ndi nkhondo ku Ukraine likhoza kuwononga kwambiri chuma cha Russia ndi European Union kotero kuti pamapeto pake lingathe kuchepetsa mphamvu zonse ziwiri padziko lonse lapansi. Chomwe chikutanthauza kusinthaku—komwe sikukumveka bwino—ndi chakuti tikuoneka kuti tikupita mofulumira ku dziko lodzaza ndi anthu osinthasintha maganizo lomwe likulamulidwa ndi mayiko awiri amphamvu: China ndi United States.

Ngati tiganizira nthawi ya ulamuliro wa US pambuyo pa Cold War yomwe inakhalapo kuyambira mu 1991 mpaka pamavuto azachuma a 2008, ndiye kuti tingathe kuona nthawi kuyambira mu 2008 mpaka February chaka chino, pamene Russia inaukira Ukraine, ngati nthawi ya quasi-multipolarity. China inali kukwera mofulumira, koma kukula kwa chuma cha EU—ndi kukula kwake isanafike 2008—kunapatsa dzikolo udindo wovomerezeka ngati limodzi mwa mayiko amphamvu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Kubwerera kwachuma kwa Russia kuyambira cha m'ma 2003 ndi mphamvu zankhondo zomwe zinapitilizabe kuonekeranso. Atsogoleri kuyambira ku New Delhi mpaka ku Berlin mpaka ku Moscow adayamikira multipolarity ngati dongosolo latsopano la nkhani zapadziko lonse lapansi.

Mkangano wa mphamvu womwe ukupitirira pakati pa Russia ndi Kumadzulo ukutanthauza kuti nthawi ya multipolarity yatha tsopano. Ngakhale kuti zida za nyukiliya za Russia sizidzatha, dzikolo lidzakhala mnzawo wachinyamata ku gawo lotsogozedwa ndi China lolamulira. Pakadali pano, vuto la mphamvu silidzakhala losangalatsa kwa Washington pankhani ya ndale: Kutha kwa Europe pamapeto pake kudzachepetsa mphamvu ya United States, yomwe yakhala ikuwerengedwa ngati bwenzi kwa nthawi yayitali.

Mphamvu yotsika mtengo ndiye maziko a chuma chamakono. Ngakhale kuti gawo la mphamvu, nthawi zonse, limawerengera gawo laling'ono chabe la GDP yonse ya mayiko ambiri otukuka, limakhudza kwambiri kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi ndi ndalama zolowera m'magawo onse chifukwa cha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwake konse.

Mitengo yamagetsi ndi gasi lachilengedwe ku Ulaya tsopano yafika pafupifupi nthawi 10 kuposa avareji yakale m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi mpaka chaka cha 2020. Kukwera kwakukulu kwa chaka chino kwachitika pafupifupi chifukwa cha nkhondo ya Russia ku Ukraine, ngakhale kuti idakulitsidwa ndi kutentha kwambiri ndi chilala chilimwe chino. Mpaka chaka cha 2021, Europe (kuphatikiza United Kingdom) imadalira zinthu zomwe Russia imagulitsa kunja pa 40 peresenti ya gasi lake lachilengedwe komanso gawo lalikulu la zosowa zake zamafuta ndi malasha. Miyezi ingapo isanalowe Ukraine, Russia inayamba kusintha misika yamagetsi ndikukweza mitengo ya gasi lachilengedwe, malinga ndi International Energy Agency.

Mphamvu za ku Europe zimawononga pafupifupi 2 peresenti ya GDP munthawi yabwinobwino, koma zakwera kufika pa 12 peresenti chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo. Mitengo yokwera kwambiri ikutanthauza kuti mafakitale ambiri ku Europe akuchepetsa ntchito kapena kutseka kwathunthu. Opanga aluminiyamu, opanga feteleza, osungunula zitsulo, ndi opanga magalasi ali pachiwopsezo chachikulu cha mitengo yokwera ya gasi wachilengedwe. Izi zikutanthauza kuti ku Europe kungayembekezere kutsika kwachuma kwambiri m'zaka zikubwerazi, ngakhale kuti ziwerengero zachuma zimasiyana kwambiri.

Kunena zoona: Ulaya sidzakhala wosauka. Ndipo anthu ake sadzazizira kwambiri m'nyengo yozizira ino. Zizindikiro zoyambirira zikusonyeza kuti dziko la Africa likuchita bwino kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito gasi wachilengedwe ndikudzaza matanki ake osungiramo zinthu m'nyengo yozizira. Germany ndi France zonse zili ndi makampani akuluakulu oyendetsera ntchito—pamtengo wokwera—kuti achepetse kusokonezeka kwa ogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu.

M'malo mwake, chiopsezo chenicheni chomwe kontinenti ikukumana nacho ndi kutayika kwa mpikisano wa zachuma chifukwa cha kukula pang'onopang'ono kwachuma. Mafuta otsika mtengo amadalira chikhulupiriro chabodza pakudalirika kwa Russia, ndipo zimenezo zatha kwamuyaya. Makampaniwa adzasintha pang'onopang'ono, koma kusinthaku kudzatenga nthawi—ndipo kungayambitse kusakhazikika kwachuma.

Mavuto azachuma awa alibe chochita ndi kusintha kwa mphamvu zoyera kapena momwe EU yayankhira mwadzidzidzi kusokonekera kwa msika komwe kwachitika chifukwa cha nkhondo ku Ukraine. M'malo mwake, zitha kutsatiridwa ndi zisankho zakale za ku Europe zoyambitsa chizolowezi cha mafuta aku Russia, makamaka gasi wachilengedwe. Ngakhale kuti zinthu zongowonjezedwanso monga dzuwa ndi mphepo zimatha kulowa m'malo mwa mafuta achilengedwe popereka magetsi otsika mtengo, sizingalowe m'malo mwa gasi wachilengedwe kuti zigwiritsidwe ntchito m'mafakitale—makamaka popeza gasi wachilengedwe wothira madzi (LNG) wochokera kunja, womwe nthawi zambiri umatchulidwa kuti ndi njira ina m'malo mwa gasi wapaipi, ndi wokwera mtengo kwambiri. Kuyesa kwa andale ena kuti anene kuti kusintha kwa mphamvu zoyera ndi komwe kwayambitsa mphepo yamkuntho yachuma yomwe ikupitilira ikulakwika.

Nkhani yoipa ku Ulaya ikuwonjezera zomwe zinalipo kale: Kuyambira mu 2008, gawo la EU pa chuma cha padziko lonse latsika. Ngakhale kuti United States inachira mofulumira kwambiri kuchokera ku Kutsika Kwambiri kwa Chuma, chuma cha ku Ulaya chinavutika kwambiri. Zina mwa izo zinatenga zaka kuti zibwererenso ku milingo isanafike mavuto. Pakadali pano, chuma ku Asia chinali kupitiriza kukula mofulumira kwambiri, motsogozedwa ndi chuma chachikulu cha China.

Pakati pa 2009 ndi 2020, kuchuluka kwa GDP ya EU pachaka kunali pafupifupi 0.48 peresenti yokha, malinga ndi World Bank. Kukula kwa US panthawi yomweyi kunali kokwera katatu, pafupifupi 1.38 peresenti pachaka. Ndipo China idakula mofulumira kwambiri ndi 7.36 peresenti pachaka panthawi yomweyi. Zotsatira zake ndizakuti, ngakhale gawo la EU la GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi linali lalikulu kuposa la United States ndi China mu 2009, tsopano ndi lotsika kwambiri mwa atatuwa.

Posachedwapa mu 2005, EU inali ndi ndalama zokwana 20 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse. Idzakhala theka la ndalamazo kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 2030 ngati chuma cha EU chidzachepa ndi 3 peresenti mu 2023 ndi 2024 kenako n’kuyambiranso kukula kwake kozizira kwa 0.5 peresenti isanafike mliriwu pomwe dziko lonse lapansi lidzakula ndi 3 peresenti (avereji ya padziko lonse isanafike mliriwu). Ngati nyengo yozizira ya 2023 ili yozizira ndipo mavuto azachuma akubwera, gawo la GDP yapadziko lonse la ku Ulaya likhoza kutsika mofulumira kwambiri.

Choyipa kwambiri n’chakuti, Ulaya ili kumbuyo kwambiri kwa mayiko ena pankhani ya mphamvu zankhondo. Mayiko aku Europe akhala akuchepetsa ndalama zomwe amagwiritsa ntchito pankhondo kwa zaka zambiri ndipo sangathe kubweza ndalama zomwe akugwiritsa ntchito pankhondo. Ndalama zilizonse zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo ku Europe tsopano—kuti zibwezeretse nthawi yomwe yatayika—zimabwera ndi mwayi woti madera ena azachuma azivutika, zomwe zingapangitse kuti kukula kuchepe komanso kukakamiza zisankho zovuta zokhudza kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pagulu.

Mkhalidwe wa Russia ndi wovuta kwambiri kuposa wa EU. N’zoona kuti dzikolo likulandirabe ndalama zambiri kuchokera ku malonda ake a mafuta ndi gasi ochokera kunja, makamaka ku Asia. Komabe, m’kupita kwa nthawi, gawo la mafuta ndi gasi la ku Russia likhoza kutha—ngakhale nkhondo ya ku Ukraine itatha. Chuma chonse cha ku Russia chikuvutika, ndipo zilango za ku Western zidzalepheretsa gawo la mphamvu la dzikolo kukhala ndi luso laukadaulo komanso ndalama zogulira ndalama zomwe likufunikira kwambiri.

Tsopano popeza kuti Ulaya yataya chikhulupiriro mwa Russia monga kampani yopereka mphamvu, njira yokhayo yothandiza ya Russia ndikugulitsa mphamvu zake kwa makasitomala aku Asia. Mwamwayi, Asia ili ndi chuma chambiri chomwe chikukula. Chomvetsa chisoni ndi chakuti, pafupifupi maukonde ake onse a mapaipi ndi zomangamanga zamagetsi pakadali pano zamangidwa kuti zitumizidwe ku Europe ndipo sizingasunthire kum'mawa mosavuta. Zitenga zaka ndi mabiliyoni a madola kuti Moscow isinthe mphamvu zake zotumizira kunja—ndipo mwina ingapeze kuti ingasinthe malinga ndi ndalama za Beijing. Kudalira gawo la mphamvu ku China mwina kudzapitirira ku ndale za dziko lonse, mgwirizano womwe Russia ikupeza kuti ikuchita gawo laling'ono kwambiri. Kuvomereza kwa Purezidenti wa Russia Vladimir Putin pa Seputembala 15 kuti mnzake waku China, Xi Jinping, anali ndi "mafunso ndi nkhawa" za nkhondo ku Ukraine kukuwonetsa kusiyana kwa mphamvu komwe kulipo kale pakati pa Beijing ndi Moscow.

 

Kusowa kwa chakudya—ndi mitengo yokwera ya zomwe zilipo—kungayambitse vuto lalikulu m'madera awa kuposa mphamvu. Nkhondo ku Ukraine yawononga zokolola ndi njira zoyendera tirigu wambiri ndi tirigu wina. Makampani akuluakulu oitanitsa chakudya kuchokera kumayiko ena monga Egypt ali ndi chifukwa chodera nkhawa ndi chisokonezo cha ndale chomwe nthawi zambiri chimayenderana ndi kukwera kwa mitengo ya chakudya.

Mfundo yaikulu ya ndale zapadziko lonse ndi yakuti tikupita kudziko lomwe China ndi United States ndi mayiko awiri akuluakulu padziko lonse lapansi. Kupatula Europe ku nkhani zapadziko lonse lapansi kudzavulaza zofuna za US. Europe—kwambiri—ndi ya demokalase, yachuma, komanso yodzipereka ku ufulu wa anthu komanso dongosolo lapadziko lonse lapansi lozikidwa pa malamulo. EU yatsogoleranso dziko lonse lapansi m'malamulo okhudzana ndi chitetezo, zachinsinsi za deta, ndi chilengedwe, zomwe zakakamiza makampani apadziko lonse lapansi kuti asinthe machitidwe awo padziko lonse lapansi kuti agwirizane ndi miyezo ya ku Europe. Kupatula Russia kungawoneke ngati kwabwino kwambiri pa zofuna za US, koma kuli ndi chiopsezo choti Putin (kapena wolowa m'malo mwake) achitepo kanthu pa kutayika kwa udindo ndi kutchuka kwa dzikolo mwa kudzudzula m'njira zowononga—mwina ngakhale zoopsa.

Pamene Ulaya ikulimbana ndi kukhazikika kwa chuma chake, dziko la United States liyenera kulithandiza ngati n'kotheka, kuphatikizapo kutumiza kunja zina mwa mphamvu zake, monga LNG. Izi zitha kukhala zosavuta kunena kuposa kuchita: Anthu aku America sanadzuke mokwanira pa kukwera kwa mitengo yamagetsi. Mitengo ya gasi wachilengedwe ku United States yakwera katatu chaka chino ndipo ikhoza kukwera pamene makampani aku US akuyesera kupeza misika yopindulitsa yotumiza kunja kwa LNG ku Europe ndi Asia. Ngati mitengo yamagetsi ikwera kwambiri, andale aku US adzakakamizidwa kuti aletse kutumiza kunja kuti asunge mphamvu zotsika mtengo ku North America.

Poyang'anizana ndi ku Ulaya kofooka, opanga mfundo za US adzafuna kukhala ndi gulu lalikulu la anthu ogwirizana pazachuma m'mabungwe apadziko lonse lapansi monga United Nations, World Trade Organization, ndi International Monetary Fund. Izi zitha kutanthauza kuti mayiko apakati monga India, Brazil, ndi Indonesia akuyenera kuyanjana kwambiri. Komabe, Europe ikuoneka kuti ndi yovuta kuisintha. United States yapindula kwa zaka zambiri chifukwa cha zofuna zachuma zomwe ikugwirizana nazo komanso kumvetsetsana ndi kontinentiyo. Mpaka pamene mavuto azachuma ku Europe akuchepa, United States idzakumana ndi kukana kwakukulu ku masomphenya ake a dongosolo lapadziko lonse lapansi lomwe limakonda demokalase.